Winter Weather Ahead

LUBBOCK, TX (KCBD) - Our local warm up, fueled by low relative humidity and strong westerly winds, will send temperatures into the 70s across the KCBD viewing area this afternoon. Some spots will see high temperatures near 80 degrees. The warmth and wind will continue until after the arrival of a cold front this weekend. Please read on for more on the wind and warmth before the front and what you can anticipate after the front.

For most of the area, it will be warm and windy the next three afternoons, including this Valentine's Day. Around Lubbock wind gusts near 40 mph are expected today. To the west, however, gusts near 45 mph are possible, especially near the state line. To the east, on the other hand, gusts near 30 are likely. Winds are expected to be slightly stronger Friday, and slightly stronger still Saturday. As previously mentioned (and mentioned), our local wildfire danger will remain high through Saturday.*

After the initial cold front this weekend, currently expected late Saturday or Saturday night, there will be a notable drop in temperatures. Even colder air will filter in the following 48 hours or so bringing a significant drop in temperatures. Currently, Tuesday looks like the coldest day and Tuesday night the coldest night of next week (though Monday night will be a close second).

Also, behind the cold front it will take a while for the dry air we now are experiencing to be replaced by enough moisture for precipitation. With that in mind, in my forecast as of this morning I have a slight chance of wintry showers beginning Monday. However, any showers Monday - still a big if - are most likely over the northwestern KCBD viewing area and then more likely late in the day.

Wintry precipitation now appears a little more likely Tuesday, based on this morning's data. While the entire viewing area potentially may receive moisture, the amounts may vary greatly. Yes, snow is a possibility - as I've mentioned in my posts and videos here the past two days. In today's video you'll see the latest snow projections from the two major models I've previously included. I listed some factors that could change what the forecast now shows and what we actually receive next week. You can see that forecast now here on our Weather Page.

The model snowfall projections you see in the video are a consideration in our forecast, but those projections are not a forecast. However, we give them more weight in our forecast the more consistent each model is to itself from run-to-run and day-to-day, as we do when the models are more in agreement with each other (from run-to-run and day-to-day). We also give more weight to the models as the time-frame of interest nears, as the accuracy of the computer models typically increases as the forecast time decreases (again, from run-to-run and day-to-day).

Watch for updates. A forecast made today may not be valid four or five days from now.

Lubbock’s low yesterday was 32°, two degrees above the average for the date. The high was 69°, eleven degrees above average. The February 13 record low is 7° (1963) and the record high 81° (1979). For today, February 14, Lubbock’s average low is 30° and the high 59°. The record low is 12° (2004) and the record high 87° (1979).

Today's sunset in Lubbock will be at 6:31 PM CST and tomorrow's sunrise at 7:32 AM CST.

On This Date

February 14, 2007: Intermittent light to moderate snow fell on much of the South Plains, with one to two inches at most locations. However, one particularly steady area of moderate snow resulted in 4 inches at Farwell and 3 inches at Dimmitt. The winter weather contributed to least 125 vehicle accidents (the majority in Lubbock). Weather rarely causes accidents, but it may contribute to them. People cause most vehicle accidents, generally by not driving to conditions.

On This Date is compiled from the records of the National Weather Service and Caprock Weather as well as data from KCBD.

*Elevated wildfire conditions, greatest each afternoon, will continue through Saturday due to the strong winds, low relative humidity, seasonally warm temperatures, and dry fuels. In these conditions fires are more likely to develop, to grow rapidly, and be difficult to bring under control. When outdoors avoid using anything that produces an open flame, keep vehicles and equipment with hot exhaust systems away from dry grasses, avoid activity that may generate sparks (such as dragging tow-chains), and if you are a smoker use extreme care with your ashes and butts.

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