A strong low pressure system moves across our area tonight. We should be in a lull through 6 or 7 p.m. locally. After that, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across the region as the low pressure system approaches from the west.
SPC has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight, mainly east of Lubbock. I think this threat will be very low given our cold temperatures today. The main reason for any severe weather tonight will be the possibility that hail could occur in the stronger storms that develop. The cold air is responsible for that threat.
I would expect hail to mainly be on the lower end of severe weather criteria and would most likely be pea-sized in nature which is not considered severe. To our south and east, temperatures will be warmer and dynamics would favor larger hail towards Snyder and Abilene.
Lubbock will likely avoid severe weather, but areas off the Caprock may briefly become severe. The timing of severe weather would be between 8 p.m. and midnight for the Lubbock area with rapidly improving conditions after midnight.
Further north, precipitation may transition to a wintry mix north of a line from Muleshoe to Plainview and Silverton overnight. No significant accumulations expected locally, but Panhandle travelers may run into problems, especially north of Amarillo.
Thursday will be very windy behind our exiting storm system with dust storm conditions possible. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 50 mph Thursday depending on cloud cover.
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