A cold front moved through the area this morning. The front has moved through the entire area as of noon. Thunderstorms may develop across the southern South Plains late this afternoon and this evening. Models do not show very much at all, but they show a storm or two near Lamesa, Gail and Snyder between 6pm and 10pm. The storms could become severe if they develop.
Large hail and high winds are the main threats. There is a minimal tornado threat around Snyder to Abilene. Should this occur, it would likely be very isolated in nature, but wind profiles do support a very low threat of a tornado.
A new development in the models at noon…it shows showers and thunderstorms developing between 3am and 7am across the South Plains as the front retreats and a disturbance tracks across New Mexico and West Texas. SPC does not show a severe risk with this activity, but it's conceivable that we may have a couple of storms ongoing during Daybreak Wednesday morning. With the energy in place, small hail and lightning would be the main threats. Our new Raincast suggests that we could get half an inch to an inch of rain in localized areas. That will not be widespread, but could occur if you are living right and storms move directly overhead. RainCast shows slow storm movement eastward as the dryline moves off the Caprock. Storms may become severe later Wednesday afternoon and evening east of Lubbock. After that, it turns windy and much colder Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a very low potential for a wintry mix north of Lubbock Thursday morning, especially near Muleshoe.
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