It's been a warm afternoon across the South Plains. Many communities are in the 80's as of 2:30. Mild conditions will continue this evening as temperatures slowly fall back into the 70's after sunset. Winds will weaken into the 10-20 mph range by mid evening.
However, the much advertised 'big change' is still on schedule to occur late tonight. A strong cold front will blast through the South Plains between 11PM and 4AM. Behind it, much colder air, strong winds, and low clouds will move into the South Plains. By Tuesday morning, most locations will be in the 30's. If you factor in gusty north winds of 20-30 mph (gusts possibly over 40 mph), wind chills will be knocked down into the teens and 20's through 10AM Tuesday morning.
There is a small chance of light wintry precipitation, mainly to the north of Lubbock on Tuesday morning. Very little measurable precipitation is expected, but it'll make it feel that much colder. Tuesday afternoon, clouds will struggle to clear the region as highs only warm to near 50 degrees in Lubbock. Communities north of Lubbock will stay in the 40's.
A freeze of some sort is almost certain on Wednesday morning. A light freeze is expected across most of the South Plains Wednesday, but there is also a decent potential for a hard freeze from Lubbock, northward. If you have recently planted anything, especially cold sensitive plants, make sure to cover them Tuesday night. Watering plants will also help to prevent freeze damage.
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