Thursday may become an active weather day for portions of the viewing area, with a risk of severe thunderstorms mainly north and east of Lubbock.
The National Weather Service believes that storms will initiate as isolated supercells during the afternoon hours Thursday. The first few storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
The tornado threat will mainly exist north and east of Lubbock including areas near Tulia, Plainview, Floydada, Matador, Caprock Canyons State Park, Silverton and Lockney.
Lubbock is close to that line and should be prepared in case storms develop further south than currently projected.
Tornado threats, if they develop, will most likely be between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m., with a possibility that a cluster of storms could develop and track to the east and southeast during the evening and overnight hours.
The tornado threats should subside around sunset. Then we would be dealing with a wind and hail event with potential for beneficial rainfall, especially east of Lubbock across the Rolling Plains.
Rain totals through Friday could range from 0.25" to 0.50" including the Lubbock area. Higher amounts may occur in stronger storms, while western areas may not receive any rainfall at all. Lubbock is a close call with regard to measurable rain, but the chance is there.
Friday through Memorial Day will be marked by isolated storms forming along the dryline each afternoon and evening. This would present a hail and high wind threat along with isolated tornado potential if they become supercells. This could create a daily dose of isolated storms between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. each day.
Thursday appears to be the most active weather day for the next five days.
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