Valentine’s, Wind, Warmth, Winter

LUBBOCK, TX (KCBD) - That didn't last long. The break from the wind. Right in line with my forecast. Much warmer afternoons also have been in my forecast. That's still the case. So, when is the next break from the wind, and how long can we expect the warmth to last? Those questions, plus an update on the wintry precipitation I discussed here yesterday, are covered below and in the accompanying video.

First, the wind. There's more on the way today, then a bit stronger tomorrow and Friday, with the strongest winds Saturday. Combined with the dry conditions and seasonal warmth the entire KCBD viewing area (and the surrounding region) is facing an elevated wildfire danger through Saturday. In these conditions fires are more likely to develop, to grow rapidly, and be more difficult to bring under control.* Also, of course, from time-to-time the wind is likely to lift dust into the air.

Second, the warmth. Highs yesterday were near average for the time of the year. Today they will be about ten degrees above average. Highs tomorrow may be as much as 20 degrees above the Valentine's Day average. Well-above average temperatures, lows as well as highs, will be the case through Saturday. Later in this post you'll find the averages and records for the time of year.

Next, Valentine's Day. It will become windy and warm. I still expect speeds to remain below Monday's levels, but strong enough there may be some blowing dust. Thursday will be windy and mostly cloudy but dry. The warmest spots in the KCBD area may top out near 80 degrees!

Finally, the end to the wind and warmth. The strong winds will die down and temperatures will fall following a cold front anticipated late Saturday, leaving Sunday just breezy, and chilly (if not cold). The relief may not last long as a brisk wind and even colder air is likely Monday. As I noted here yesterday, my confidence is low for my forecast covering early next week, as a slight shift in the thrust of the cold air and/or a slight difference in how cold the air is can mean a very large difference between what is forecast now and what we experience early next week.

Plus, an update on the wintry precipitation potential I discussed here yesterday. Here's why yesterday I cautioned "...don’t watch the last part of the video if later you are going to say You promised.... You said there would be... Where’s the (fill-in-the-blank) you promised?... But you said...!” Compared to yesterday, the projected snowfall total for Lubbock from the European model is nearly double (yesterday's) while the American model has decreased its projection by more than 95% (from yesterday)! The last part of the accompanying video is only, at least for now, for your entertainment.

My take on the cold and precipitation chances haven't changed much over the past 24 hours, so you will see little change in our forecast covering next week. It's right here on our Weather Page (and in our free Weather App - click/tap the menu icon in the upper left and then under the Weather heading click/tap "DOWNLOAD THE WEATHER APP").

Lubbock’s low yesterday was 21°, eight degrees below the average for the date. The high was 57°, one degree below average. The February 12 record low is 9° (1948 and 1958) and the record high 86° (1962). For today, February 13, Lubbock’s average low is 30° and the high 58°. The record low is 7° (1963) and the record high 81° (1979).

Today's sunset in Lubbock will be at 6:30 PM CST and tomorrow's sunrise at 7:33 AM CST.

* Elevated wildfire conditions, greatest each afternoon, will continue through Saturday due to the strong winds, low relative humidity, seasonally warm temperatures, and dry fuels. When outdoors avoid using anything that produces an open flame, keep vehicles and equipment with hot exhaust systems away from dry grasses, avoid activity that may generate sparks (such as dragging tow-chains), and if you are a smoker use extreme care with your ashes and butts.

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