West Texas and Hurricane Sally

Daybreak Today - Weather, Sept. 16

LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Like yesterday, a few brief light showers may dot the KCBD viewing area today. Like yesterday, there will be little if any measurable rainfall. This afternoon will be the warmest of the week. In this post more on today and the days ahead.

Our Local Forecast

The overall weather pattern is mostly static, so we see little day-to-day change in our weather. It follows that today will be similar to yesterday with a mix of clouds and sun, a little bit of a breeze, and a few brief light rain showers may pop up. The potential for measurable precipitation is about ten percent.

It will be, however, a little warmer this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid- to upper 80s.

Mostly fair skies return tonight. Lows generally will range from the mid-50s in the northwestern viewing area to the low 60s in the eastern viewing area. Winds will be light.

Pretty much a repeat tomorrow with a mix of clouds and sun, a little bit of a breeze, and a few brief light rain showers possible.

It will be, however, a little less warm. Peak temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Morning clouds are likely Friday, but sunshine will dominate the afternoon. Winds will be a bit breezy at times. The afternoon will be warm with highs in the low 80s.

More sunshine with warm afternoons this weekend. Lows in the 50s, highs in the 80s.

Much more detail available at this moment here on our Weather Page and in our free Weather App.

Tropical Tracks

Sally made landfall at approximately 4:45 AM CDT near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph. Landfall occurs when the center of the system crosses the coastline as it moves inland. High winds, flooding rains, and severe thunderstorms are likely before and after landfall.

As noted in previous forecasts, Sally will not be affecting our weather here in West Texas.

The tropical Atlantic remains active. Get the latest with our Interactive Radar here on our Weather Page or in our free Weather App. After selecting radar, zoom out and pan the radar so you can see the Gulf Coast. If you don’t see icons and tracks for the storms, go to the Layers menu (lower right), then Overlays, and highlight the Active Tropical Track (or Tropical Track) icon.

Lubbock Climatology

84°F was the high at the Lubbock airport yesterday, which is one degree below the average high for the date. The September 15 record high is 99° (set in 1956 and tied in 1965).

60° was the low at the Lubbock airport this morning, which is one degree above the average for the date. Lubbock’s September 16 average low is 59° and the high 84°. The record low is 42° (set in 1951) and the record high 100° (set in 1965).

Today’s sunset in Lubbock is at 7:51 PM CDT. Tomorrow’s sunrise is at 7:32 AM CDT.

A La Niña Winter

In case you missed it here yesterday, I’m repeating what I posted about the influence of the expected La Niña on our winter weather.

A La Niña Advisory is issued by the US government when La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. La Niña conditions were present in August, and the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) believes there’s a 75 percent chance they’ll hang around through the winter.

La Niña intensifies the contrast between the warm far western Pacific and much cooler eastern Pacific. This results in a strengthening of a large-scale circulation pattern (called the Walker Circulation) characterized by air rising over the very warm waters of the far western Pacific, traveling eastward high in the atmosphere, sinking over the eastern Pacific, and then traveling back westward near the surface.

This circulation is expected to be stronger than average through winter. More rising air over the far western Pacific means lower air pressure there, while descending air over the eastern Pacific means higher air pressure in that area. This imbalance, the La Niña pattern, alters atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and in turn affects global weather and climate.

La Niña shifts the jet stream northward of its average position. Typically, for us in West Texas La Niña winters are warmer and drier than average. But not always, as La Niña isn’t the only pattern which can affect our weather. There are other large scale and some smaller scale patterns which can change the outcome.

A La Niña Advisory is issued by the NOAA when La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. An advisory also is issued when El Niño conditions are observed and expected to continue.

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