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Storm and heat outlook this week

Updated: Jun. 14, 2021 at 5:44 AM CDT
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LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Some slight heat relief is on the way. It may not last long. Plus, rain chances will be even lower in the days ahead. This is the last “official” week of Spring. Yes, Summer does not “officially” begin until late this weekend. See “Meteorological Seasons” below.

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger over the southeastern KCBD viewing area into this afternoon.

Highs today will be about five degrees lower than yesterday, ranging from the low 90s in the northeast to the upper 90s in the southwest. My forecast high for Lubbock is 95 degrees, down slightly from yesterday.

Sunday’s high of 100 degrees at Lubbock was the third triple-digit day of the year. A triple-digit day is any day the temperature reaches at least 100 degrees. As I’ve noted in the past, because we round up actually it is any day the temperature reaches at least 99.5 degrees.

Lubbock’s recognized site of record for weather is the Lubbock airport.

Temperatures in the days ahead will gradually edge back up, back to near 100 by the end of the week. Other than the rain chance already mentioned, I don’t expect rain the remainder of the week.

Fathers’ Day is shaping up hot and dry. At least until the evening when a slight chance of storms returns to my forecast. It’s also the first day of Summer.

While meteorological summer begins June 1, the recognized start is the Summer Solstice. This year, that happens June 20 at 10:21 PM CT.

While meteorological summer begins June 1, the recognized start is the Summer Solstice. This year, that happens June 20 at 10:21 PM CT.

Meteorological Seasons

Why the difference between the meteorological and astronomical start?

Typically, the weather the last three weeks of a season are more like the following season. That is, the weather the last three weeks of Spring is more like Summer (as a whole) than it is like Spring (as a whole).

There’s another reason for our meteorological seasons. Record keeping and year-to-year season comparisons are much more straight forward using full months.

Slower Than You Might Expect

The US Drought Monitor may not change as quickly as you might expect, both when there’s rain and when there is not.

Precipitation is the main factor, but not just recent rain (or snow). It incorporates what has happened over roughly the last six months, less weight for older data, more weight toward current data. It considers variables such as precipitation, temperature, fire conditions, satellite data, soil moisture, surface water, stream flows, groundwater levels, even crop conditions.

The Drought Monitor reflects conditions relative to the long-term average for that location. For example, Abnormally Dry around here means drier than usual for here. Around Houston it would reflect drier than usual for that area, but it wouldn’t be nearly as dry as here.

You can find my recent video posts with the current drought monitor on my “Steve Divine KCBD” Facebook page and in our KCBD Weather App. If you don’t already have it, our app is free from your app/play store.

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