Hot weekend, slight storm chance

Published: Jul. 22, 2021 at 5:30 AM CDT
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LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Most days this summer (so far) high temperatures have been below average. It looks like that is about to change. After this weekend rain is less likely and hotter days more likely.

Just one-third of this summer’s high temperatures (so far) have been above average. Keep in mind, meteorological summer begins June 1. This is day 52. See the section on 100-Degree-Days below.

I mentioned here yesterday that high pressure, a ridge, is forecast to build over the West Texas area into next week. This pattern typically results in increasing heat and low, but not necessarily zero, rain chances.

Anticipating this, my forecast has each day’s high peaking a degree or two above the previous day. With an exception or two, showers are unlikely this or tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures climbing to near average for late July
Temperatures climbing to near average for late July(KCBD First Alert)

Today again will be mostly sunny with a slight breeze, and the afternoon will be a little warmer. Or in some cases, hotter. Highs will range from the mid- and upper 80s west, to the upper 80s and near 90 central areas, and from near 90 to the low 90s in the far eastern viewing area.

A stray shower or two may pop up this afternoon over the southeastern KCBD viewing area. A few storms are possible overnight and early Friday near - but mainly west of - the New Mexico state line.

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy, once again with a slight breeze, and highs will climb another degree or two. Temperatures will peak in the upper 80s west, near 90 central areas, and the low 90s in the far eastern viewing area.

By late tomorrow a few storms may return to the viewing area, mainly the western area.

A slight chance of storms remains in my weekend forecast. High temperatures will climb to within a degree or two of average for late July, and then slightly above average early next week.

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100-Degree-Days and Precipitation

This year, so far, Lubbock has recorded five days with a temperature of at least 100°F. In practice, as I’ve said before, that happens any day the official temperature hits at least 99.5°F. We round up.

The last 100°-Day was June 23 with a high of 100°.

This year, so far, Lubbock has recorded five days with a temperature of at least 100°F.
This year, so far, Lubbock has recorded five days with a temperature of at least 100°F.(KCBD First Alert)

The following are the counts for recent years through July 22 and the total number of 100°-days for the respective year:

2020 19 27

2019 8 19

2018 24 25

2017 11 11

2016 10 13

2015 0 4

2014 5 11

2013 11 14

2012 14 24

2011 30 48

Precipitation this year so far is well above average. The year-to-date total of 15.03″ is 4.52″ above the average through July 22.

It was below average in 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2013, and well-below average in 2012 and 2011.

2011 is Lubbock’s driest year on record (5.86″) and the year with the most 100-Degree-Days.

Triple-digit temperatures are usually rather rare by late August. However, they occasionally pop up in September. Oh, and the latest Lubbock has recorded a 100-Degree-Day? October 3. That was in 2000.

A clear correlation between precipitation and triple-digits. The year so far, however, doesn’t really tell us much about the rest of the year. A long-term dry pattern would result in hotter, likely above average, temperatures.

We’ve not had many days this summer with above average highs. Just one since this month so far (though I believe we will see some next week). In June there were 16 days when the temperature was above the average for the date. The last was June 25 (97°).

Lubbock Climatology

83°F was the high temperature yesterday at the Lubbock airport. That is 11 degrees below the average high for July 21. The record high for the date is 103° (set in 2018).

64° was the low reported at the Lubbock airport this morning (unofficial at this time). Lubbock’s July 22 average low is 69° and the high 94°. The record low for the date is 55° (set in 1915) and the record high 104° (set in 2003 and tied in 2018).

No rain was recorded yesterday at the Lubbock Airport. The total for July so far is 2.94″. That’s 1.45″ above average through July 21. The year-to-date total is 15.03″, which is 4.54″ above average.

Today’s sunset in Lubbock is at 8:54 PM CDT. Tomorrow’s sunrise is at 6:53 AM CDT.

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