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Increasing Rain Chance Late Week

Published: Sep. 27, 2021 at 7:58 AM CDT
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LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Rain chances are expected to increase late this week. Before then, however, a slim to none chance. Here’s the latest on this week’s weather trends around the South Plains.

A few light rain showers and isolated storms are likely this afternoon and evening. The best chance of rain will be this evening with scattered storms moving from west to east. Coverage will be spotty, but locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts are possible.

Today a slight chance of rain, partly sunny, breezy, with highs slightly above average for late...
Today a slight chance of rain, partly sunny, breezy, with highs slightly above average for late September.(KCBD First Alert)

Highs today will range from the mid-80s near the New Mexico state line to near 90 degrees east of the Caprock. That’s slightly above average for late September. Lows tonight will be only slight cooler than last night, ranging from the mid-50s in the northwestern viewing area to the low 60s in the far eastern viewing area.

Rain chances will be slim to none Tuesday and Wednesday. There is, however, a slight chance of storms late tomorrow over the far eastern KCBD viewing area. These storms are likely to be strong and may produce downpours and strong wind gusts.

Highs will edge up a couple of degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lubbock will top out near 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Nearly ten degrees above average for the time of year.

Storm, and therefore rain chances, will pick up late Thursday through Saturday. In that time, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. We may see widespread amounts greater than an inch. There is a “but”.

The computer models we use for guidance are not in good agreement on the rain outlook. This reduces confidence in the forecast. Below are the two models in question. Both graphics show the computer forecast model output for rainfall totals through Sunday. As always, don’t focus on specific totals at specific locations. Rather, these are general guides for what is possible in the area. As always, stay tuned.

The computer models, such as the ECMWF (also known as the "European" or "Euro") shown here, are...
The computer models, such as the ECMWF (also known as the "European" or "Euro") shown here, are not in good agreement on the rain outlook. Forecast totals here are much higher than those forecast by the GFS (aka the "American")(KCBD First Alert)
The computer models, such as the GFS (also known as the "American") shown here, are not in good...
The computer models, such as the GFS (also known as the "American") shown here, are not in good agreement on the rain outlook. Forecast totals here are much lower than those forecast by the ECMWF (aka the "European").(KCBD First Alert)

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