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Warming before our next cold front

Published: Sep. 28, 2021 at 8:26 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 28, 2021 at 12:36 PM CDT
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LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - The South Plains area overall will trend drier and warmer this afternoon and tomorrow. That will be followed by a cold front and an increasing chance of rain Thursday. I’ll add rain totals from Monday to this story a little later this morning.

This afternoon the chance of storms will be primarily well east of the Caprock. As temperatures climb into the 90s a few strong storms are possible from late afternoon through early evening. These storms may produce heavy rain, hail up to about an inch across, and wind gusts of about 55 to 65 mph.

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny and gusty this afternoon. Slight chance of storms, possibly...
Partly cloudy to mostly sunny and gusty this afternoon. Slight chance of storms, possibly marginally severe, over the far eastern KCBD viewing area.(KCBD First Alert)

The afternoon elsewhere will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, gusty, and very warm. Highs will be in the 80s. The southwest wind will range from about 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph possible.

Tonight will be mostly fair. Lows in the 50s will be common over the western viewing area and 60s over the eastern viewing area.

Tomorrow brings an even drier and warmer pattern. Wednesday will be mostly sunny with a breezy and somewhat hot afternoon. Temperatures will peak near 90 degrees in the Lubbock area. Mid-90s will be common east of the Caprock - the eastern KCBD viewing area.

Our next cold front is expected late Thursday morning.

Behind the front highs will drop into the 70s and 80s Thursday, and 70s Friday. Lows will drop into the 50s around Lubbock.

Also behind the front, cloud cover will increase with an increasing chance of rain. At this time, data points toward widespread rain, off and on, late Thursday through early Saturday. Guidance suggests widespread quarter- to half-inch amounts with one- to two-inch totals possible in spots.

Side by side, the "American" and the "European" forecasts for total rainfall between now and...
Side by side, the "American" and the "European" forecasts for total rainfall between now and late Saturday. Updated Tuesday.(KCBD First Alert)

Models (computer programs designed to “model” the atmosphere/weather) now indicating somewhat lower rain totals compared to 24 hours ago.

Significant rain fell on much of Lubbock Monday and Monday night. Some spots picked up even...
Significant rain fell on much of Lubbock Monday and Monday night. Some spots picked up even more. See the list below.(KCBD First Alert)

The Lubbock airport measured 0.54″ of rain yesterday. Total precipitation this month so far is 0.57″, which is 1.76″ below the average through September 27. The total for the year so far is 19.28″, which is 4.25″ above the average from January 1 through September 27. It’s also nearly an inch above Lubbock’s average annual precipitation of 18.33″.

Rain totals for Monday and Monday night listed below (in inches) in and near the KCBD viewing area, from viewers like you, the National Weather Service, and the Texas Tech West Texas Mesonet.

1.57 Olton

1.00 Lubbock 8th & Milwaukee

0.92 Anton

0.72 Abernathy

0.72 Amherst

0.70 Aiken

0.57 Lubbock NW

0.56 Plainview

0.52 Reese Center

0.48 Lubbock 64th Dr & Memphis Ave

0.43 Lubbock 105th & Memphis

0.37 Lubbock SE

0.31 Morton

0.28 Smyer

0.25 Floydada

0.23 Levelland

0.20 Vigo Park

0.12 Tulia

0.11 New Home

0.09 Fluvanna

0.09 Gail

0.09 Jayton

0.10 South Plains 3ENE

0.09 Silverton

0.07 Caprock Canyons

0.06 O’Donnell

0.05 Hart

0.05 Muleshoe

0.05 Seminole

0.05 Sundown

0.02 Lamesa

0.02 Plains

0.02 Turkey

0.01 Earth

0.01 Tahoka

0.01 Tatum

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