Showers and storms tonight, dry rest of the week

Published: Oct. 12, 2021 at 4:28 PM CDT
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LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - update 10:50 p.m. - Some showers have developed across the South Plains this evening, racing from southwest to northeast. Because they’re moving so quickly, rain totals are pretty minimal. The cold front we’ve been waiting on is now moving into the northwestern South Plains.

Ahead of the front, additional showers and storms will be possible. Some storms could even become strong to severe, with better humidity and instability the farther east you move across our area.

It’s a pretty small window for rain and storms. Once the front moves through your location, the rain chance is over. This means about Midnight for the central South Plains, along I-27/U.S. 87. And 1 to 2 a.m. for locations east, off of the Caprock. Then drier air will move in, with quiet fall weather next few days.

The tornado watch that was in place for parts of the Rolling Plains and SE Panhandle was dropped early. Storms did develop farther east, even some tornado reports in southwestern Oklahoma.

update 5:39 p.m. - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for the eastern Panhandle, western Oklahoma and parts of the Rolling Plains. In our area this includes Hall, Cottle and King counties. Watch goes until 11 p.m., shown in blue below.

Tornado watch in blue until 11 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 12.
Tornado watch in blue until 11 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 12.(KCBD)

Latest data still show our area will likely stay quiet until a front arrives from the west after 9 p.m. It should develop a few storms, possibly as far west as Plainview or Lubbock. Then storms will move east quickly.

It’s been a sunny, warm and windy day across the South Plains, with a southerly wind around 20-25mph, approaching 30mph over the western South Plains. We’ve also been watching the dew point climb through the day, meaning it’s getting more humid. The deeper humidity is over the eastern part of our area, which is where storms are more likely.

There is also a front to our west, over New Mexico. As that front moves across the area this evening it will meet up with the more humid air and should lead to some thunderstorms. Big question at this point is where the dry line will be at that time...meaning where will the humid air be. We’re thinking it’ll be near I-27/U.S. 87 or just east. This means there is a slight chance for a thunderstorm this evening into tonight around Lubbock, with a better chance for communities farther east.

The Storm Prediction Center severe outlook for tonight shows the more significant risk is up into SW Kansas, W Oklahoma and the NE Texas Panhandle, level four out of five, in red.

This is the severe weather risk for Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021.
This is the severe weather risk for Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021.(KCBD)

For our area, most locations are at level 1 out of 5, with level 2 in yellow. This doesn’t reference how strong storms will be as much as the likelihood you’ll see a severe storm.

Storm Prediction Center outlook for Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021.
Storm Prediction Center outlook for Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021.(KCBD)

Storms that become severe will mainly produce damaging wind, though there could be some hail and possibly a tornado.

The chance for storms Lubbock and points east will continue through early morning. Then it will turn drier and still breezy, morning low near 47.

NEXT FEW DAYS: It’ll be mostly sunny Wednesday afternoon, high near 77. Rain and storms will be downstate, but we’ll probably see some clouds through the afternoon, especially east of Lubbock. There could even be a few showers to the southeast, as well.

Thursday will trend warmer, before cooler days settle in. Friday will likely only reach the upper 60s. The afternoons will add a few degrees over the previous day from Saturday through Monday, lots of sun.

COLD MORNINGS: Along with cooler days, it will get chilly at night this weekend. We now expect a low temperature in the upper 30s Saturday morning in Lubbock. To the northwest, where it’s usually cooler, there could be frost or freeze, especially around Muleshoe and Bovina. We again expect upper 30s Sunday morning.

FIRST FREEZE: A reminder of our First Freeze contest at Yates Flooring Center. You have to have the entry in three days before that first freeze.

We’ll have updates on the storm potential here, on KCBD NewsChannel 11 and on social media as needed through tonight.

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