UPDATE: Increasing threat of severe storms in the KCBD area late today
LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - In a mid-morning update, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now places much of the KCBD viewing area, including Lubbock, at an Enhanced risk of severe weather. Severe storms are likely in our area late today. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts and hail, but locally heavy rainfall also is possible.
The ingredients for severe storms will be place late today. A disturbance moving northeast out of Mexico will move across West Texas, preceded by another hot afternoon, this is expected to be enough to break the cap (the rising air will punch through a layer above of stable air - the cap) late in the day.
The atmosphere is expected to remain “capped” until late in the afternoon, with storms likely developing over the western viewing area along the dryline. As the airmass becomes more unstable and the dryline moves from west to east, storms will increase in number and intensity. Some are likely to become severe.
Guidance suggests clusters of storms or possibly supercells. These will bring a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. Storm intensity may peak early to mid-evening, at about the time storms may be in the Lubbock and Plainview areas. Weakening, though possibly still severe, storms will drift eastward through the evening.
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In a mid-morning update, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now places much of the KCBD viewing area, including Lubbock, at an Enhanced risk of severe weather. That is a 3 on a scale of 5.
An Enhanced Risk designation (orange) indicates conditions favorable for very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts, possibly greater than 70 mph). Isolated tornadoes also are possible.
A Slight Risk (yellow) indicates the ingredients are or will be present for scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threats today are damaging wind gusts and hail. Typically, coverage is spotty and storms are short-lived. An isolated tornado or two is possible.
The Marginal Risk (dark green) category indicates isolated severe storms are possible. Storms in this area may produce wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph, hail up to about one inch in diameter. The tornado threat typically is low.
The Thunderstorm (light green) shows where thunderstorms are possible. These may not produce severe weather but may be accompanied by gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain.
Lightning is a risk with all thunderstorms. If you can clearly hear thunder or see lightning, you should move indoors immediately
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